Weekly briefing 100

The Week in Brief

This week marked a new peak in the confrontation between judicial systems and political leadership worldwide. In the US, the Supreme Court curtailed the presidential trade doctrine; in Brazil, corruption scandals engulfing the judiciary are fueling populist resurgence; and in South Korea, a former president received a life sentence. Global leaders increasingly recognize that domestic institutional crises project outward, directly shaping geopolitical power and credibility. Amid this vacuum, major powers and pivotal middle actors are attempting to redefine the rules of the emerging order: from Europe once again turning eastward, to India asserting technological sovereignty in artificial intelligence, Canada extending support to Cuba, and nuclear-armed Pakistan expanding cross-border operations into Afghanistan.

Geopolitical Dynamics

A. Europe–China Recalibration: The German Chancellor conducted a strategic visit to China aimed at narrowing the significant bilateral trade deficit. Following recent visits by French and British leaders, the move signals a broader European effort to hedge against excessive strategic dependence on the US.

B. AI and Global Governance: At the AI Summit in New Delhi, the US rejected a UN initiative to establish an international regulatory body for artificial intelligence, likely seeking to preserve technological primacy. Meanwhile, India accelerated its ascent as an AI power: major domestic conglomerates announced cumulative investments of $210 billion in infrastructure and data ecosystems, alongside the launch of an independent national AI model.

C. Fragmentation in Latin America: Venezuela, facing growing US pressure and engagement, began expelling Cuban intelligence personnel who had formed the backbone of its internal security apparatus for decades. In response to intensified US sanctions and Cuba’s worsening humanitarian crisis, Canada announced plans to dispatch assistance to the island—an initiative likely to provoke sharp reactions from Washington amid the review of North American trade arrangements.

Security and Threat Environment

A. Mexico: The killing of “El Mencho,” leader of the Jalisco Cartel—reportedly with support from a newly established US task force—triggered widespread violent retaliation. Road blockades and coordinated arson attacks across multiple states, with dozens reported killed, have raised concerns of escalation toward a broader confrontation between the state and organized crime networks.

B. AI Militarization: The Pentagon reportedly issued an ultimatum to Anthropic, demanding unrestricted military access to its technology, including applications related to autonomous weapons systems, under threat of designating the company a national security risk. Concurrently, the firm accused three Chinese AI companies of creating 24,000 fictitious accounts to extract model capabilities.

C. Sudan: The UN determined for the first time that actions by RSF forces in El-Fasher bear “indicators of genocide.” The US subsequently imposed additional sanctions on RSF commanders. Spillover risks are rising: Chad closed its border following deadly cross-border incidents.

D. Pakistan–Afghanistan Escalation: Significant exchanges of fire followed rare Pakistani airstrikes deep inside Afghan territory. Islamabad maintains that the strikes targeted terrorist infrastructure responsible for recent attacks inside Pakistan, while the Taliban authorities in Kabul reported civilian casualties and threatened retaliation. The escalation signals a dangerous shift: nuclear-armed Pakistan, grappling with deep internal instability, appears prepared to risk direct confrontation with the Taliban authorities to stem cross-border militancy.

Economy and Technology

A. US – Trade Doctrine Overturned: In a 6–3 ruling, the US Supreme Court held that the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs exceeded executive authority. The decision significantly disrupts the administration’s trade strategy. In immediate response, the European Union suspended a vote on ratifying a pending trade agreement with Washington. A newly published study further revealed that approximately 90% of tariff costs have been absorbed by US consumers and firms. The broader context is notable: tension between executive and judicial branches has reached heightened levels across multiple democracies, reflecting structural difficulty in adapting legacy institutional frameworks to rapid global transformation.

B. US Trade Architecture in Asia: Despite domestic legal turbulence, details emerged of a US–Taiwan trade agreement involving reciprocal tariff reductions and Taiwanese procurement commitments totaling $85 billion through 2029. Indonesia also signed a trade framework with Washington involving approximately $28 billion in procurement. Beijing, perceiving the consolidation of a US-led economic alignment, responded asymmetrically by imposing export restrictions on 20 Japanese defense technology companies—retaliating for Tokyo’s public statements on potential military support for Taiwan and signaling to the broader region the economic costs of alignment with Washington.

C. Competition for the Global South: The International Monetary Fund called on China to reconsider its export-driven growth model, arguing that it contributes to systemic global imbalances. Meanwhile, India and Brazil signed 12 cooperation agreements spanning rare earth minerals to pharmaceuticals. Madagascar opted to strengthen ties with Russia rather than with France.

D. Russia – Information Control: The Kremlin escalated its campaign against information freedom, launching a criminal investigation on charges of “aiding terrorism” against Telegram’s founder and blocking the platform domestically alongside other applications. Authorities aim to compel migration to the state-backed MAX platform—a move reportedly generating unusual domestic backlash, including among frontline soldiers.

Political Crises

A. Brazil: A series of corruption and nepotism scandals has shaken the Supreme Federal Court, severely undermining its legitimacy. The judiciary had been central in prosecuting former President Bolsonaro (sentenced to 27 years in prison). The current crisis is expected to strengthen his political base ahead of parliamentary elections.

B. Heads of State: Former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol received a life sentence on charges related to insurrection in connection with the December 2024 attempted power seizure. In Peru, Congress removed another president, appointing an interim leader—the eighth head of state in a decade.

C. Colombia: The country is bracing for potential unrest following a court ruling that froze a dramatic 23% minimum wage increase advanced by the president. The decision has intensified class tensions ahead of the May presidential elections.

D. Democratic Backsliding: In Bangladesh, the newly elected government has declined to advance constitutional reforms intended to limit executive authority, raising concerns about renewed authoritarian drift. In Gabon, authorities blocked access to all social media platforms “until further notice” following a wave of strikes, citing concerns about disinformation.

Surely goodness and mercy shall follow,

The Geopolitics Lab Team