Weekly briefing 103

The Week in Brief

This update maps a reality where an Iranian kinetic strike wipes billions off tech valuations, U.S. domestic politics inadvertently fund Putin’s war in Ukraine, and middle powers like Canada, Zimbabwe, and Germany are taking their military and economic security into their own hands rather than waiting for a renewed world order. In a landscape where energy supply lines, cloud technology, and critical minerals are deeply intertwined in a single strategic knot, risk management now demands a holistic perspective and rapid adaptability.

Geopolitical Dynamics

A. The Cloud and Energy Front: Iran's physical attack on Amazon's (AWS) server farms, alongside its threats against Google and Nvidia facilities, makes it clear that tech infrastructure is now a legitimate target alongside energy facilities. Concurrently, the energy market is reacting nervously to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA is releasing a record 400 million barrels of oil, while countries like Sri Lanka have already shifted to a 4-day workweek to ration fuel. In the background, the UN's warning that fossil fuel dependency constitutes a national security threat is translating into a 20% spike in EV searches in the U.S.

B. NATO and the Wars in Russia and Iran: Trump is threatening to sever trade with Spain over its refusal to allow the U.S. to use its bases for the Iranian campaign. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration granted a partial sanctions waiver for Russian oil heading to India, simply to lower domestic gas prices. This move hands Putin an extra $150 million a day for his war in Ukraine and has sparked unprecedented outrage in Germany. In response to this perceived American betrayal, Berlin is breaking bloc discipline and establishing back-channel contacts with Tehran, aiming to secure a separate agreement to guarantee immunity for European oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

C. Trade Wars & Consolidating Control: The U.S. has launched trade investigations against the EU, China, India, and Mexico (laying the groundwork for bypass tariffs), while simultaneously setting up a system to refund $166 billion in illegally collected tariffs. South Korea, for its part, just approved a massive $350 billion investment in the U.S.

Security and Threats

A. Defense Supply Chains & Autonomy: Ukraine has successfully developed its first UAVs entirely free of Chinese components, shedding a major strategic dependence on Beijing, and signed co-production deals with Romania. Meanwhile, the war in Europe is increasingly damaging civilian infrastructure; Moldova was cut off from its water supply after a Russian bombing caused severe oil contamination. Down in Africa, Kenya forced Moscow to halt the recruitment of its citizens as mercenaries for the Ukrainian front.

B. Asymmetric Conflicts: The Pakistan-Afghanistan clash reached a boiling point with the Pakistani Air Force striking Kabul. Islamabad claims it targeted an ammo depot, while the Taliban claims 400 people were killed in a rehabilitation center. In Europe, explosions occurred outside a synagogue and a Jewish school in the Netherlands. Meanwhile, North Korea took advantage of the distracted global radar to launch 10 ballistic missiles during a joint U.S.-South Korea military drill.

C. Political Purges: In China, President Xi continues to expand his military purges, firing senior officials while demanding "absolute loyalty." In Uganda, the young opposition leader fled the country in fear for his life, leaving President Museveni completely unrivaled after 40 years in power. In Kazakhstan, a constitutional referendum handed dramatic new powers to the President, allowing him to bypass parliament and push through legislation. It is worth noting that Kazakhstan is Central Asia's critical energy and uranium hub—two highly sought-after commodities in the current climate.

D. Arctic Deterrence: In response to Trump's rhetoric about Canada and Greenland, Ottawa approved a $26 billion defense budget to build airfields and military bases in the Arctic. Canada is also tightening defense cooperation with the five Nordic nations (including consideration of purchasing submarines from Norway and Germany) to establish an independent defense front and assert sovereignty in the North.

Economy and Trade

A. Africa’s Mineral Battlefield: Africa is rapidly becoming the primary battleground for the resources of the future. The U.S. is threatening to halt HIV medical aid to Zambia unless granted access to critical minerals; Zimbabwe banned raw lithium exports, forcing foreign (mostly Chinese) companies to process it locally; and the Democratic Republic of Congo opened its first gold refinery to wrest market control away from organized crime syndicates.

B. Regulation & Social Media: Albania lifted its ban on TikTok following a Supreme Court ruling protecting free speech. This highlights the inherent difficulty democratic governments face in issuing blanket bans on tech platforms (even under the guise of national security), necessitating a shift toward regulation rather than outright prohibition.

Crises and Upheavals

A. Cuba: The collapse of the national power grid, driven by Trump's fuel blockade, has pushed the communist regime into a corner. To survive, Havana opened secret talks with the U.S., released 51 political prisoners, and is allowing exiles to invest in island businesses for the very first time. Moscow, sending a signal of support, dispatched an oil tanker.

B. Latin America: Days after taking office, Chile's ultra-conservative president began digging trenches on the Bolivian border to curb immigration. Tensions also spiked after Colombia accused Ecuador of dropping a bomb on its territory during a military operation. The strategic significance of these events extends beyond the continent: Chile is the world's largest copper producer, and the militarization of the migration crisis (fueled by Venezuelan refugees) signals to investors a growing risk in supply chains critical to the EV and semiconductor industries.

C. Diplomatic and Historical Crises: South Africa summoned the U.S. ambassador for a rare reprimand after he meddled in local politics by comparing the country's affirmative action policies to the Apartheid regime. In Belgium, a court ordered the prosecution of a former senior official for the 1961 assassination of Congolese PM Patrice Lumumba, ripping open colonial wounds. In Syria, the new rebel government banned alcohol sales in Damascus, a move that may signal creeping religious radicalization.

D. China: President Xi passed a law mandating education exclusively in Mandarin, overriding the native languages of 125 million ethnic minorities—a dramatic move to erase cultural identities and enforce rigid national uniformity.

“Surely goodness and mercy shall follow” (Psalm 23).

The Geopolitics Lab Team