Weekly briefing 114

The Week in Brief

As the world adjusts to "sanction inflation" and crisis management via economic strangulation, this issue uncovers the next phase in the breakdown of the old order: the privatization of national security and the splintering of the Western defense umbrella. Faced with a transactional U.S. president, multi-theater wars, and the rapid weaponization of AI, nations are aggressively recalculating their strategic paths.

Europe is quietly swapping Washington's nuclear umbrella for Paris's; Japan is independently arming the Philippines to counter China; and modern warfare is rapidly trickling down to non-state actors. We are now seeing Brazilian drug cartels adopting Ukrainian drone doctrines and North Korea testing AI-guided missiles. Meanwhile, domestic crises continue to hollow out governance from within: administrations in Bolivia and Germany are teetering, and millions of Indian youth are adopting a cynical "cockroach" identity to protest a totally disconnected establishment.

As part of our effort to adapt to the new era, here is our dedicated chatbot (Gemini Gem), trained on our latest updates. It’s ready to answer any questions you have.

Geopolitical Dynamics

A. Asia’s Independent Diplomacy: Japan rolled out the red carpet for Philippine President Marcos Jr. in a calculated move to pull Manila out of Beijing's orbit, aiming to make the Philippines the first buyer of Japanese military hardware. Meanwhile, Vietnam's leader warned at the Shangri-La Dialogue that a conflict in the South China Sea could trigger catastrophic global trade shocks, citing the Strait of Hormuz blockade as a live case study.

B. Hungary's Economic Thaw: Under its new Prime Minister, Péter Magyar, Hungary is negotiating with Brussels to unlock over €30 billion in frozen EU funds. Unfreezing these assets—previously blocked due to a trust crisis with the Orbán regime—could clear a major institutional gridlock in the EU and pave the way for faster, consensus-driven decision-making.

Security and Threats

A. France’s Nuclear Umbrella: President Macron informed Norway's Prime Minister that Paris is prepared to extend its nuclear deterrent to Oslo. Norway has historically relied on the U.S., but growing doubts about the Trump administration’s commitment to NATO are forcing Europe to adapt. Poland and Lithuania already joined the French nuclear umbrella—the world's fourth-largest—this past spring.

B. AI and Drones Reach Cartels and Dictators: Supervised by Kim Jong Un, North Korea tested ballistic missiles, artillery rockets, and AI-guided cruise missiles, signaling a dangerous leap toward sophisticated guidance and swarm capabilities. Simultaneously, members of Brazil’s Comando Vermelho cartel traveled to Ukraine to learn drone warfare from local operators. The cartel, joining over 65 non-state actors globally with drone arsenals, has already deployed the tech against police raids in Rio de Janeiro.

C. The Black Sea Blockade Expands: Russia launched drone strikes against three foreign merchant ships in Ukraine's maritime export corridor. The move signals that commercial shipping tied to Ukraine is now a legitimate military target. This threatens to spike maritime insurance premiums and serves as a stark reminder that naval chokepoint conflicts now stretch from the Strait of Hormuz to the Black Sea.

Economy, Technology and Trade

A. Trump’s Tariffs and the Minerals War: The White House is prepping a sweeping new 10% tariff package targeting 60 nations, including the EU, China, Japan, and India. While officially framed around laws prohibiting forced labor (to bypass the Supreme Court), it serves purely as an aggressive bargaining chip for Trump to extract geopolitical concessions—such as securing critical minerals and forcing allies to increase defense spending.

B. Europe’s Schism Over Beijing: France, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, and Lithuania are pushing for a new EU trade-defense mechanism to slap tariffs on China based on national security, driven by a €360 billion trade deficit. However, the initiative hit a wall after Germany and Poland refused to sign. The rift exposes a fundamental clash in Europe: prioritizing economic growth and preserving trade versus treating national security as the absolute top priority.

Crises and Upheavals

A. India's "Cockroach" Rebellion: Millions of frustrated Gen Z youth in India have launched a viral protest movement dubbed the "Cockroach Party." The name was cynically adopted after a senior judge referred to unemployed youth as "cockroaches." The movement has amassed tens of millions of followers—largely citizens left behind despite India's headline GDP growth—forcing the government to order X (formerly Twitter) to block the account on national security grounds.

B. Deadly Riots Over U.S. Medical Base in Kenya: Two people were shot dead in Kenya during mass protests against a U.S. decision to build an Ebola isolation center at Laikipia Air Base. The facility is meant to treat U.S. citizens exposed to the virus in the DRC and Uganda, sparking local outrage over the risk of importing the disease. Defying a halt order from the country's Supreme Court, Kenya's President is insisting on pushing the project forward.

C. Bolivia's Cabinet Crumbles: Bolivia's Defense and Education ministers resigned amid massive protests against austerity measures and soaring living costs that have paralyzed the country. The conservative president, in power only since November, is weighing a state of emergency and military deployment, while parliamentary factions demand a recall referendum.

“Surely goodness and mercy shall follow” (Psalm 23).

The Geopolitics Lab Team