Weekly briefing 118

The Week in Brief

The era of grand bargains is dying, and what's replacing it is a realist fight for survival in which every actor fends for itself alone. This issue tracks the international system stripping down to its barest components: European states bypassing EU institutions for bilateral security pacts, mass and violent expulsions of migrants from India to South Africa, and Iranian schemes to sidestep maritime law. While governments buckle under civic fury from Britain to the Balkans, Washington deploys open kinetic force in Latin America. The global game has shed any pretense of free trade, replaced by a cynical race for supremacy—whether it's China's aggressive siphoning of American AI know-how, or Iraq's extortion of the energy market.

As part of our effort to adapt to the new era, here is our dedicated chatbot (Gemini Gem), trained on our latest updates. It’s ready to answer any questions you have.

Geopolitical Dynamics

A. A Reopened Strait, a Tightening Grip: The US temporarily lifted oil sanctions to push the regional agreement forward and bring nuclear inspectors back in. But even with Hormuz formally reopened, drone attacks on merchant shipping continue—Tehran's way of keeping a hand on the maritime throttle while the diplomats talk. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman are exploring transit fees on vessels passing the strait, modeled on East Asia's “voluntary services” schemes—a workaround to international law's ban on collecting tolls in international waters. Washington rejects any change to the prewar status quo, but the interim deal leaves the door open to unilateral moves once the agreed window runs out.

B. London and Warsaw Go It Alone: Britain and Poland signed a security pact—an independent arrangement built outside EU frameworks. The deal cements Poland's status as Europe's leading land power and erects a deterrent front against security threats (Russia above all) without total dependence on American backing.

Security and Threats

A. The Border Burns Again: Cross-border shelling and airstrikes resumed between Pakistan and Afghanistan, killing dozens. The renewed violence threatens to torpedo mediation efforts—and lays bare how little control either government has over the militias operating from its soil.

Economy, Technology and Trade

A. Baghdad Threatens to Blow Up the Cartel: Iraq is threatening to walk out of OPEC+ unless it is allowed to raise its production quotas and rebuild its economy. The move could rattle energy prices and set off competition inside the cartel itself—following the path the UAE beat earlier this year.

B. Strip-Mining American AI: Anthropic accuses Alibaba of “bombarding” its systems with systematic queries designed to train rival models on the answers. The goal: to clone the capabilities of an American model whose access Washington recently restricted over fears of exploitation by foreign military intelligence services. The revelations sharpen the intelligence community's suspicion that China is siphoning American industrial know-how to close the technological gap between the two powers.

C. Summer Davos: Theater of the Absurd: The World Economic Forum convened its annual summer meeting in China, with headline discussions devoted to AI adoption and sustainable growth. In practice, the event showcased the chasm between economic discourse and hard geopolitical reality: as delegates preached open global markets and green innovation, the EU and the US were slapping heavy tariffs on China's climate and auto industries—and Chinese tech firms stood accused of systematically pillaging Western AI models.

Crises and Domestic Politics

A. Albania on the Edge: Violent clashes erupted between protesters and police in Albania's largest demonstrations in decades. What began as opposition to a resort development on a protected stretch of coastline has swelled into demands to bring down the government and investigate corruption—while the prime minister blames foreign hands for stoking the unrest.

B. Musical Chairs at Europe's Top: Britain's prime minister resigned under the weight of economic and party crises, clearing the way for new leadership. In parallel, Italy's premier and Serbia's president are weighing early elections—or the exit—amid civic pressure and crumbling support at home.

C. The Doors Slam Shut: The EU approved a migration law establishing deportation centers beyond the continent's borders. In South Africa, hundreds were arrested during anti-foreigner riots. India, meanwhile, has sharply escalated deportations of Muslim migrants across the border into Bangladesh, inflaming tensions between the two states. Together, the message is unmistakable: a global hardening toward populations without status.

D. The Heat Dome Breaks the Grid: An extreme heatwave is pounding Europe, shattering historic temperature records and claiming lives. A climate phenomenon known as a “heat dome” has parked over the continent, driving readings past 40°C in France, Germany, Hungary, and Poland. The crisis has moved beyond the immediate health emergency into infrastructure collapse: authorities report widespread blackouts and heat-buckled railway tracks paralyzing passenger and freight traffic.

“Surely goodness and mercy shall follow” (Psalm 23).

The Geopolitics Lab Team