Parallel diplomatic tracks

This week in a brief

The UN General Assembly week in New York became a hub for several parallel diplomatic channels: US-Iranian contacts mediated by Qatar on the sidelines of the UN over the Strait of Hormuz, a new Arctic security agreement between the United States, Denmark and Greenland, and a proposal by President Zelenskyy to President Trump for a reciprocal energy ceasefire. In the southern Arabian Peninsula, planned US strikes against the Houthis were called off at the last moment, while European countries provided limited assistance to Saudi Arabia. In Venezuela, Machado was prevented from returning as Rodríguez met with Trump, while in Ethiopia, Tigray returned to open confrontation with Addis Ababa. At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s East West Pipeline partially resumed operations, Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel, United Russia consolidated a constitutional majority in the Duma, and state elections in Germany dealt another political blow to Chancellor Merz.

Geopolitical Dynamics

US-Iran contacts mediated by Qatar on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly: Iran’s foreign minister and Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner held their first contacts since the collapse of the interim arrangement over the summer, with Qatar mediating in New York rather than through a formal UN channel. Iran reiterated its conditions, including an end to fighting “on all fronts,” an easing of US pressure and the blockade, and measures concerning its assets. Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within roughly seven days if the United States eases military pressure and freezes the blockade of Iranian ports. Trump described the exchanges as productive, but no breakthrough or concessions were announced, and there is no signed agreement to reopen the strait.

US Denmark Greenland Arctic security agreement: On September 22, Trump, Denmark’s prime minister and Greenland’s prime minister signed an amendment to the 1951 defense agreement. The agreement expands US access, adds new defense areas, lays out a modernization framework for the US Pituffik Space Base, prohibits a non-NATO military presence, and restricts sensitive investment by non-allied countries. At the same time, it reaffirms Danish sovereignty and Greenland’s right to self-determination. The agreement still requires parliamentary approval in Denmark and Greenland.

Ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, Taiwan arms sales become a bargaining chip rather than a “chip deal”: Xi is expected to press for reductions in US arms sales to Taiwan in the context of the 1982 understandings. A second package worth roughly $14 billion remains unapproved and is still being held within the administration; Trump has previously described it as a “bargaining chip.” US allies worry Taiwan could become negotiable in a broader deal with Beijing.

Zelenskyy and Trump discuss a reciprocal energy ceasefire: During a roughly 40-minute meeting on the sidelines of the General Assembly, Zelenskyy said Kyiv was prepared for a reciprocal energy ceasefire, halting attacks on Russian refineries and energy infrastructure if Moscow stops striking Ukraine’s electricity and water systems. It was explicitly stated that no unilateral Ukrainian halt to such strikes was discussed. Rubio and Lavrov also met separately.

Security and Threats

Trump calls off planned strikes against the Houthis at the last moment: Following a call with the Saudi crown prince on Thursday, Trump ordered preparations for a strike, but the order was canceled by around midday Sunday, September 20. Reports said target lists had been approved and munitions loaded, but no US combat sorties were carried out. Trump said the United States remained in contact with the Houthis, who had pledged not to target US vessels, but did not address the defense of Saudi Arabia.

Britain provides a Voyager tanker aircraft for Saudi defense as France offers assistance around energy infrastructure: The British Ministry of Defense announced that one RAF Voyager air-to-air refueling aircraft would support Saudi defensive operations. France, meanwhile, was reported to be prepared to help protect Saudi energy infrastructure around Yanbu and the East West Pipeline, also within a strictly defensive framework.

A Russian Mi 8 helicopter enters Polish airspace for roughly 42 seconds: On September 23, a Russian military helicopter flying from Kaliningrad entered Polish airspace north of Braniewo, penetrating roughly 300 meters for about 42 seconds. Polish fighter jets were scrambled, and Warsaw described the incident as a readiness test.

Tigray returns to open war with Addis Ababa: The Tigray administration declared that it had entered a “defensive war” after accusing Ethiopian forces of carrying out drone, air and artillery attacks. Tigrayan forces seized airports in the region, including Mekelle and, according to reports, also Shire and Axum, while Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to all three destinations. The developments mark a return to open confrontation following the 2020 to 2022 civil war and the Pretoria Agreement. The African Union called for immediate de-escalation.

Economy, Technology and Trade

The East West Pipeline partially resumes operations: Saudi Arabia restarted flows at a reduced rate through the pipeline after it was shut down following the September 11 drone attack. A full return to the previous level of roughly 4 million barrels per day could take six to eight weeks. Oil prices remain below $100 a barrel, well below the highs reached the previous week.

Trump signs Russia sanctions legislation and extends the duration of Iran sanctions: This week, Trump signed H.R. 5334, the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. The legislation introduces sanctions and tariffs targeting Russia’s energy and defense sectors and its shadow fleet, while extending existing sanctions on Iran. According to the White House, the law broadens statutory authorities against Russia and extends the Iran Sanctions Act from 2026 through 2031.

Crises and Domestic Politics

Putin’s United Russia wins 57.83% and 355 seats: With more than 95% of the vote counted, the head of the Central Election Commission announced that United Russia had received 57.83% of the party list vote and was projected to win 355 of the Duma’s 450 seats, giving it a record constitutional majority. Yabloko, the only party openly opposed to the war in Ukraine, was blocked from gaining representation at the national level.

German state elections increase the pressure on Merz: The AfD won more than 38% of the vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while Chancellor Merz’s CDU fell below the 5% electoral threshold. In Berlin, by contrast, the Left Party, Die Linke, came first. The results highlight the growing fragmentation of German politics and the difficulty mainstream parties face in maintaining support as parties on both ends of the political spectrum gain ground. Merz described the results as a “disaster,” but said he would remain in office and continue pursuing his planned reforms.

“Surely goodness and mercy shall follow” (Psalm 23).

The Geopolitics Lab Team